Options trading · Market research
A trading record that shows its working.
Every options trade since 2022, published in full — winners and losers — next to the research behind them. No screenshots, no cherry-picking.
The portfolio
410 trades logged since 2022, tracked from a $10,000 base.
Total realised P&L
+$20,981
- Return
- +210%
- Win rate
- 70.5%
- Balance
- $30,981
- 2022 +$1,725
- 2023 +$4,913
- 2024 +$3,283
- 2025 +$6,521
- 2026 +$4,539
Recently closed
- COSTBull Put Spread+$14512 Aug '26
- RKLBCustom+$4307 Aug '26
- SNDKNaked Put+$1506 Aug '26
- MSFTCustom+$1,3954 Aug '26
- CRWVCustom+$3003 Aug '26
- ARMCustom+$21029 Jul '26
2026 year to date: +$4,539 across 40 trades, 76% win rate.
Rajen Kapadia
Trading since 1998
I started trading at university in 1998, and joined a prop desk in 2005 running interest rate futures spreads. Equities came later, and for some years now it has been primarily options — mainly selling puts, combined with calls or spreads.
Market junkie, fundamentally. I have traded through plenty of difficult stretches and plenty of good ones, and I am still standing — which in this business counts for rather more than any single year’s return.
Which is why the record here is complete rather than curated. Every trade, winners and losers, and the reasoning behind the ones worth writing up.
The research
Event notes on earnings and the things that actually move a stock — the recap, the read, and the position that follows from it.
- AAPLEarningsBuy
A record quarter, and a downgrade about next year's margins
Apple's strongest June quarter ever, then a Jefferies cut to Underperform three weeks later. The two are not in conflict: the quarter was about the installed base, the downgrade is about what a sixfold rise in memory prices does to iPhone margins from here. A higher-risk buy — long on momentum and a level, not on conviction about the next five years.
13 Aug 2026 · 3 min read
- UBEREarningsBuy
Bookings up 24%, and a $10bn down payment on autonomy
Bookings up 24%, margins widening, trailing free cash flow through $10bn — and one of the few large names still well off its highs, held back by an AV threat that is currently under 0.5% of trips. Uber also put a number on autonomy for the first time: $10bn and roughly 120,000 vehicles.
7 Aug 2026 · 6 min read
- MSFTEarningsHold
Azure accelerates to 43%, and the capex bill arrives with it
Azure at 43% and an 11.8% EPS beat, landing in the name that had been the laggard of the Mag 7 — which is exactly why it moved sentiment as much as it did. The business is in good shape. After a run from the $350s to a shade under $500, the entry price no longer is. Moving to Hold.
4 Aug 2026 · 4 min read